Ted Cruz was the first declared candidate for the 2016 election. That ‘far too early’ declaration began a series of events making this presidential race interesting and revealing. In the early stages of the season politicos were convinced that the candidates would be Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush; enter Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump.

When Trump’s poll numbers began to rise the ‘leaders’ of the GOP ignored his popularity, believing it would soon fade away. When he attacked John McCain they were certain his star would soon lose its glow. They were drastically mistaken. Regardless of what Trump said, his popularity grew. His supporters were attracted to his harsh rhetoric and the fact that he spoke the truth; at least his truth. They cheered as he made bigoted and racist remarks. It was time for a member of the GOP to be truthful about what the party truly stands for.

Non-existent leadership in the GOP became a problem. In 2012 the large number of highly unqualified candidates resulted in the nickname ‘clown car.’ With 17 declared candidates, Reince Priebus, the Chairman of the RNC, sought a way to avoid a repeat of 2012. The first GOP debate was to be conducted by FOX Noise. Priebus and FOX President Roger Ailes decided that only the top 10 in the polls would be allowed on the main stage; the others would have a ‘cocktail debate’ earlier in the evening.

On the night of the debate, the first question made two things obvious; it was not going to be a debate, and mainstream GOP had decided to make an effort to derail Trump. It failed miserably. When the evening was over, Trump experienced a surge in his numbers.

Since that evening Trump has become more outrageous in both his false statements and attacks. He has not only railed against President Obama, Hillary Clinton, and Bernie Sanders, he slandered his GOP opponents. He continues to lead in the polls. His approval reveals the fact that GOP voters dislike the other candidates and may accept anyone other than those now holding office.

Bernie Sanders appeared to be a dark horse when he declared himself a candidate for the Democratic nomination. The 74-year-old Independent Senator from Vermont is a self-described ‘Democratic Socialist.’ Just as with the GOP, Sanders began to attract large numbers of supporters. This phenomena was accomplished without donations received through Super PACs or large corporate donors.

Sanders has an 83 percent favorability rating among his constituents; he is also receiving more support from women than Hillary Clinton. Sanders’ strength is that he stays ‘on message.’ He continues to fight for the working class by attacking income inequality and the fact that college is far too costly for most Americans.

So, who will win their party’s nominations? As for the GOP it now appears highly unlikely that Jeb Bush will become the third Bush living in the White House. His poll numbers continue to move in the wrong direction.

The first significant event is the Iowa Caucus to be held on February 1^st. Trump continues to lead in the polls, but thanks to the support of Evangelicals, Ted Cruz is gaining. By February 24^th four events will have been completed. Will the GOP see a clear front runner at this historically relevant point in time? With the Iowa Caucuses, New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries, and finally the Nevada caucuses completed, we who write about politics will have much to analyze.

The GOP is hopeful that Marco Rubio will become the party’s standard bearer. He is considered by most to have the best opportunity to defeat the Democratic candidate. He is more moderate, but his lack of experience will be a problem.

It continues to be very likely that Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic candidate in 2016, unless she self-destructs as she did in 2008. Bernie Sanders will continue to receive support, but Hillary appears to be more ‘electable.’

When Cruz declared earlier this year, November 2016 appeared to be far away; now it is rushing towards reality.

Lastly, it’s prediction time. I do believe that the candidates will be Hillary Clinton and Marco Rubio. When voters actually go to the polls they will find it difficult to cast their ballot for Donald Trump. His extremism and lack of qualifications will likely force them to use their brains instead of their emotions.

Op-Ed

By James Turnage

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