Beginning today, February 1, the first four primaries in the month will be held for the nomination of both party’s candidates for the 2016 presidential election. Iowa will hold its caucus tomorrow, followed by primaries in New Hampshire and South Carolina, with the final event of a caucus in Nevada. The media has placed tomorrow’s event in Iowa as indicative of the winner who will challenge for the presidency in November.

Nothing could be further from the truth.

Most political analysts would agree that what happens in Iowa is often insignificant. Let’s go back to 2000 and review the results of both parties.

In 2000 both Al Gore and George W. Bush won their caucus and became their party’s nominees. In 2004, John Kerry was victorious for Democrats, while Bush was unopposed. In 2008 Barrack Obama won for the Democrats, and Mike Huckabee for Republicans. In 2012, Rick Santorum received the majority, but Mitt Romney was a close second. Barrack Obama received 98 percent of the Democratic participation.

Although the Democratic results have proven to be prophetic, the Republican results are far from decisive.

If you are a ‘political junkie,’ your focus will be on the Democratic Party tomorrow. If Bernie Sanders wins, will this predict similar results for Hillary Clinton who lost to the President in 2008?

As for Republicans, one group may decide the outcome. Huckabee and Santorum were victorious because evangelicals went to the polls in large numbers and gave them a win. Will this happen for religious extremist Ted Cruz?

Maybe the bigger question is, can Trump’s overall popularity give him Iowa, and create a swell of support which will carry him to the convention in July? If they poll in large numbers, he will likely win.

Whether or not today’s results will translate into a victory at the conventions, it will be interesting and offer fodder for new articles.

The only thing history tells us is that Iowa voters are ‘late bloomers.’ The polls often mean very little. With that to consider, what would happen if Marco Rubio was the winner; or Walter O’Malley? This campaign season has been the most unusual in my lifetime, and nothing is impossible.

Regardless, today is the day for Iowa to have the spotlight. Not only will the people of the United States be watching, but also people around the world.

Op-Ed

By James Turnage

Photo Courtesy of DonkeyHotey

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