Today’s New Hampshire primary has little significance for Democrats. Bernie Sanders is expected to have a large victory. Sanders is from Vermont and has enormous popularity in the area.

For Republicans today’s event is critical, and not only for those whose poll numbers are in single digits.

For those of us who follow politics closely, Ted Cruz’ victory in Iowa was not a surprise. The evangelical vote was expected to give Cruz the win as it did Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Rick Santorum in 2012. However, if he fails to finish in a strong third place today, at the very least, he may begin to lose additional support.

Donald Trump must have a ‘huge’ win. A win, without receiving a large percentage, would strike a blow to the party’s leader. He has campaigned much more vigorously in New Hampshire, and will consider a victory without significant numbers a virtual defeat.

The final consensus of GOP polls in New Hampshire prior to today’s primary are significant, but with an estimated 40 percent of New Hampshire’s voters claiming to be Independents, will they prove to be accurate?

The leading five are Donald Trump with 31.2 percent; Marco Rubio, 14.0 percent; John Kasich, 13.5 percent; Ted Cruz, 11.8 percent; and Jeb Bush, 11.5 percent.

As they say on television political broadcasts, the race for second place is ‘too close to call.’

Jeb Bush’s future may be decided by the results today. He must finish in second place, or a very close third, to give his campaign a reason to continue. Bush is currently in fourth place in the polls for the South Carolina primary. His campaign needs ‘an infusion,’ and it must begin in New Hampshire.

Marco Rubio has long been the ‘favorite son’ of mainstream Republicans. He must secure a second place finish, and will receive an enormous boost if he finishes within ten points of Trump. He is currently in third place in polls for the South Carolina primary behind Trump and Cruz. A strong finish in New Hampshire may help change that situation.

It is doubtful that Ted Cruz can ‘cheat’ in New Hampshire. During the past few days it has become obvious that his campaign attempted to unethically influence Iowa voters. The big question for him, is can he finish ahead of Jeb Bush? New Hampshire voters are a far different breed than those in Iowa. They are well-known for their vetting of the candidates, and a far less likely to vote entirely based on emotion.

John Kasich is the wild card. He is presently polling at just two percent in South Carolina. He must surpass Rubio today, and finish in second place if his campaign is to continue.

This is the first ‘big’ test for the candidates. Unlike a caucus, this event occurs in a voting booth with no campaigning allowed. Republican voters admittedly have ‘unconventional’ choices. With the exception of Kasich, three of the leading four candidates can be labeled as ‘extremists.’ Three out of four have little or no experience. Two of the four are Senators without credentials on the positive side.

Can any of them defeat Hillary Clinton if she is the Democratic nominee? Polls reveal that only Rubio can challenge Ms. Clinton. Will GOP voters cast their ballots for the best candidate available, or will they vote against Hillary? This is another question which will not be asked by the media.

Op-Ed

By James Turnage

Photo Courtesy of DonkeyHotey

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