In 2008 Hillary Clinton lost the South Carolina primary to Barrack Obama. As of today she nearly doubles her lead over Bernie Sanders in the ‘Palmetto State.’ But will that be the result two weeks from Saturday?

Bernie Sanders has a solid hold on millennials; those aged between 18 and 29. Younger voters have been voicing their opinions in large numbers this year. Sanders also secured the votes of the majority of younger women in New Hampshire. Will younger black voters cast their ballots for Hillary in South Carolina, or will the trend continue.

Although this is only the third event in the 2016 season, a huge win for Ms. Clinton is a must. Sanders appears to be gaining in momentum.

Before South Carolina, Nevada will hold its caucus on February 20^th. Clinton presently leads Sanders by 19.5 points; but is that lead secure? I have lived in Nevada for 30 years, and our citizens are somewhat unpredictable. Southern Nevada has the largest population, with Las Vegas and Henderson, but the Reno/Sparks area often decides the outcome of elections.

Sanders has a solid team here in the north. They are convincing voters one by one that the Senator can win in November. The University of Nevada at Reno, UNR, is a strong voting bloc, and continues to support Sanders. Reno has a large number of retired citizens who will likely vote for Clinton. The key for both candidates is the women’s vote.

I believe that Hillary Clinton must not only win Nevada and South Carolina, but win by large margins. She badly needs to see the momentum switch to her camp, or possibly suffer a similar defeat as in 2008.

On the Republican side, Donald Trump has ‘huge’ leads in both states. If he wins them easily, who will be next to follow Christie and Fiorina? Kasich’s numbers are low in both states. He is in last place in both. Bush is fourth in South Carolina and fifth in Nevada. If he fails to obtain a second place win in at least one of the states, his hopes appear to be ebbing away.

Cruz has a firm hold on second place in both states, but is nearly 17 points behind Trump in South Carolina, and behind by 13 in Nevada.

Rubio’s fifth place finish in New Hampshire crushed his momentum; he is seven points behind Cruz in South Carolina and is lagging by nine points in Nevada.

It appears that the GOP race is down to two candidates. The only question is how can Cruz overtake Trump? His best hope is in South Carolina which has a large evangelical contingent.

Op-Ed

By James Turnage

Source

Photo Courtesy of Marc Nozell

Read ‘James Turnage’ on the free Amazon Kindle App