
What was a tempestuous 2016 campaign season has become somewhat boring. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is likely to win the nomination based on present and projected delegate count. Bernie Sanders cannot be ignored, but he would have to make enormous strides in the next couple of weeks.
The interest is focused on the ‘Republican’ candidates. The two most unpopular choices for the Republican mainstream are the only remaining GOP hopefuls. There are three primaries tomorrow in Utah, Arizona, and American Samoa. A total of 107 delegates are available. The breakdown is Arizona 58, Utah 40, and American Samoa 9.
There are no polls for American Samoa; Trump holds a sizeable lead in Arizona, and Cruz is expected to win the Mormon state of Utah. Little change in the delegate count is expected.
Nationally, Trump leads Cruz by nine percentage points. If the delegates in future primaries remain split, it appears that the Republican Party is headed for a brokered convention in July. That means that neither Trump nor Cruz may become the party’s nominee.
What would this mean for the GOP? Actually, nothing. Some would say that it will fracture, but that has already happened. If Trump has the largest number of delegates entering the convention, and fails to receive the party’s nomination, nearly 40 percent of Republican voters may secede from the party, handing the November election to the Democratic candidate.
On June 7th, seven states will hold primaries. This day will give Republican voters answers regarding their expectations for the convention. This date includes California and New Jersey. Trump leads Cruz in California by more than ten points. In New Jersey, Cruz is behind by more than 20 points.
With no future ‘debates’ to watch, and two boring and disrespected candidates who have nothing to offer the majority of Americans; who cares?
Personally I’m waiting for the convention to begin on July 18th. With a little help from one of the GOP’s owners, the NRA, this could be fun.
Op-Ed
By James Turnage
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